Power Trend System Alert History
The Alert History starts at the inception of the current version of the Power Trend System. The table below shows each alert that came through the system and displays the results using several different Contract scaling strategies. Keep in mind that different traders will end up with different results based on a number of factors including slippage and whether or not they use discretionary tactics or miss certain alerts.
Targets that were hit are shaded in green. Targets with no shading means the Trailing Stop was hit before it reached that Target.
T1+T2 = 2 contracts, sell 1 at Target 1 and 1 at Target 2
T1+Trail = 2 contracts, sell 1 at Target 1 and hold 1 using the system Trailing Stop
2xT1+T2 = 3 contracts, sell 2 at Target 1, 1 at Target 2
2xT1+T2+Trail = 4 contracts, sell 2 at Target 1, 1 at Target 2 and hold 1 using the system Trailing Stop
NOTE: Alert History temporarily unavailable. We are currently working on the back-end automation to populate the Alert History. Stats will be available when the update is finished.
How to Interpret the Performance Stats
The worksheet shows the results for each Alert using several different contract scaling strategies
Sessions with multiple triggered Alerts are numbered next to the Date under Entry. The fourth column from the left shows the Entry Price the system got filled on an Alert.
The Positive and Negative Traction columns show how many points the Alert went against us and how many points the price moved in our favor – from the Entry Confirmation price. This shows us how much “heat” we took on any given alert and what the potential max point move was. It’s an ideal way of “scoring” each alert and is particularly useful in the case of “runners” that move past both Targets and continue to run in the direction of the trade Alert. To put it another way – it shows the “maximum price excursion” in relation to the Entry price – in both directions.
T1 Hit shows the percentage “hit rate” on Target 1 and the T2 Hit shows the percentage of Alerts that hit Target 2.
Back-Tests for the first 6-Months of 2024
Since the Power Trend System is brand-new, the results in the table above don’t really include a large enough sample size to provide the best overall picture of what to expect.
So here are the back-tested results for the first 6-months of 2024 using the two most popular contract scaling strategies.
2 ES Contracts selling 1 at Target 1 and 1 at Target 2
2 ES Contracts selling 1 at Target 1 and holding 1 with the Trailing Stop
Keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Also keep in mind that the drawdowns on the back-tests above are actually just “giving back some of the house money” since the system generated profits right from the start.
Depending on the system performance immediately after you start, it is possible to incur drawdowns up-front. However the system is designed to be self-correcting over time and while drawdowns are inevitable, over the long-term we anticipate very respectable results.
What many traders don’t understand when they ask to see “stats” is that there is not just one set way to trade the system. While it can be traded mechanically, there is always going to be “discretion” in the form of how many Contracts the user chooses to trade and which scaling strategy they choose to employ. Our Trade Plan offers 9 possible Contract scaling options using 1-4 Contracts and each of those will produce different results.
The back-test equity curve graphs above just provide a general idea of what you might expect using a couple “basic beginning level” 2 contract scaling strategies trading the ES Contract. We have a specific Trade Plan in the documentation that explores various other scaling strategies and suggests adjusting position size based on recent performance.
There’s a lot more to it than what you see on this page. For instance a 2 contract trader using either of the strategies on the graphs above has a 70% chance of “getting to breakeven” on each trade based on the hit rate of Target 1. It’s hard to quantify the feeling of relief when a trade gets to breakeven quickly and you can’t lose any money on it from that point on. I think you get the idea.
If you have any questions about the Alert History please feel free to contact us.